Our jobs require that we make predictions. Will someone get hurt on that unguarded machine? Will the EPA inspect your workplace next year? The only way to develop a worst-case scenario for releases of hazardous materials, as required by the OSHA hazardous waste operations and emergency response standard, is to look outward in time and make a prediction.
Some predictions are formed using sophisticated methods, others are simply someone's best guess. In this article, I want to show you just a few ways that predictions are used, and maybe misused, in the EHS field. Hopefully, you'll also come away thinking more openly about how you make predictions.