No recession, no rapid expansion predicted for 2016 economy
The presidential election is 12 months away. Knowing what we know now, what should we expect the economic backdrop to be when Americans go to the voting booths?
On Nov. 8, 2016 — Election Day — 17 leading forecasters from economic consultancies, financial firms and universities said unemployment would be the lowest it has been during an election since George W. Bush and Al Gore faced off in 2000, when it stood at 3.9 percent. The median forecast for the unemployment rate in November 2016 was 4.8 percent (which would be down from 5.3 percent last month). The exerpts saw only a 15 percent chance of a recession starting by next Election Day. Interest rates, inflation and gasoline prices should all be a bit higher than they are now, they said, while staying quite low by historical standards.