This website requires certain cookies to work and uses other cookies to help you have the best experience. By visiting this website, certain cookies have already been set, which you may delete and block. By closing this message or continuing to use our site, you agree to the use of cookies. Visit our updated privacy and cookie policy to learn more.
This Website Uses Cookies
By closing this message or continuing to use our site, you agree to our cookie policy. Learn More
This website requires certain cookies to work and uses other cookies to help you have the best experience. By visiting this website, certain cookies have already been set, which you may delete and block. By closing this message or continuing to use our site, you agree to the use of cookies. Visit our updated privacy and cookie policy to learn more.
ISHN logo
search
cart
facebook twitter linkedin youtube
  • Sign In
  • Create Account
  • Sign Out
  • My Account
ISHN logo
  • Home
  • Magazine
    • Current Issue
    • Digital Editions
    • Archives
    • Buyer's Guide
    • Subscribe
  • Topics
    • Environment
    • Environmental Health and Safety
    • Government Regulations
    • Health
    • Industrial Hygiene
    • Occupational Safety
    • PPE
    • Product Case Studies
    • Psychology
    • Safety Culture
    • Training
    • Transportation Safety
    • More Topics
  • Construction
  • Oil & Gas
  • Columns
    • Editorial Comments
    • Best Practices
    • Positive Cultures
    • Training Strategies
    • Closing Time
    • FR Protection
    • Thought Leadership
  • Products
  • Conventions
    • Convention Companion
  • Multimedia
    • eBooks
    • Infographics
    • Photo Galleries
    • ISHN Podcasts
    • Your Digital Mentor Podcasts
    • Videos
    • Webinars
    • White Papers
    • ISHN YouTube Videos
  • More
    • Awards
      • 2020 Readers' Choice Awards- Submit Products
    • eNewsletters
    • Events
    • ISHN Store
    • Product Case Studies
    • Product Innovations
    • Showrooms
    • Vendor News
  • Advertise
    • Contact
Home » EDITORIAL COMMENTS: Flunking as a futurist
Columns

EDITORIAL COMMENTS: Flunking as a futurist

May 1, 2007
Reprints


With our cover story this month taking a look at the future of industrial hygiene, I thought I’d dust off some predictions I made a dozen years ago and see how they turned out.

Back on a sunny spring Saturday, May 13, 1995, I had the pleasure of addressing the graduates of Indiana University of Pennsylvania’s Department of Safety Sciences in Indiana, Pa., the hometown of actor Jimmy Stewart about an hour east of Pittsburgh.

My 20-minute talk was filled with predictions about the world of safety and health that these grads would inhabit 10-20 years down the road. Let’s see, almost exactly 12 years later, about the clarity of that crystal ball I brought to Indiana that day.

PREDICTION: Most safety and health pros will be working from home offices.
Not exactly. The numbers of telecommuters is indeed growing. I didn’t know that I myself would be working from a converted carport in 2007, and many of my publishing brethren and safety and health professional contacts would have offices in their basements, bedrooms, dining rooms, etc.

But as Glenn Fishler of EORM, Inc. pointed out in a presentation at last year’s Professional Conference of Industrial Hygiene, since 1970 the number of multinational corporations has exploded more than 800 percent, from 7,000 to 60,000.

Reports of the death of Corporate America have been greatly exaggerated, and I’d give my prediction here a Grade C at best.

PREDICTION: Voice recognition technology would be opening our refrigerators, turning on and off our TVs and operating our computers.
What we have today are those eerily humanoid telephone voices that recognize our prescription refill orders or train reservations. And they cheat by asking us to use our touch-tone keypad. “Let me be sure I have this right,” chirps the humanoid. Not what I had in mind. Prediction Grade: D

PREDICTION: Safety and health professionals would receive their morning news on their commuter screens, customized to their personal interests.
The wailing and gnashing of teeth you hear from newspaper publishers tells you this prediction was fairly right on. Thank you Google and Yahoo and MySpace and YouTube. Prediction grade: B (People still read the paper for the sports page.)

PREDICTION: Basketball superstar Michael Jordan would be a star on golf’s Senior Tour.
Turns out MJ can make a ton more money endorsing Wheaties, McDonald’s burgers, Christmas stockings, edible cake decorations, golf club covers, shower curtains, beanbag chairs, wall calendars, nightlights, yo-yos, toothbrush holders, school boxes, action figures, flashlights, magnets, and of course sneakers. As Salon magazine says, “What’s good for Michael Jordan is good for America.” Prediction grade: D- (MJ does make some money off of golf club covers, anyway.)

PREDICTION: Rick Santorum, former Republican senator from Pennsylvania, would be President of the United States.
Santorum, once the number-three man in the Senate leadership, got bounced out of office by voters in 2006. He’s now, big surprise, a Washington attorney and commentator for Fox News. I need to leave political prognosticating to the likes of Frank White at ORC Worldwide; Aaron Trippler, the American Industrial Hygiene Association’s government affairs guru; and Dan Glucksman, who does similar divining for the International Safety Equipment Association. Prediction Grade: F

PREDICTION: OSHA and EPA would merge into the Environmental Health and Safety Administration due to federal cost-cutting.
I should’ve known better. Aaron Trippler told me a long time ago once a federal agency is created, you simply cannot, never, ever kill it. Prediction Grade: F

PREDICTION: I told the grads an ergonomics standard would be issued by the end of the year 2015.
The clock’s still ticking on this one. Who knows, if Hillary wins the White House in ’08 and names Peg Seminario of the AFL-CIO the head of OSHA, all bets are off. Prediction Grade: Incomplete

PREDICTION: Nursing homes and healthcare facilities will be big clients for safety and health consultants, due to the aging population, shift to a service economy, and the many lifting, falls and infectious disease hazards in these workplaces.
Ha! Talk about safe practices in healthcare; today you still can’t get many docs to even wash their hands before and after seeing patients. According to a study in the Annals of Internal Medicine, docs followed hand-hygiene protocols only 57 percent of the time. Most hospitals are so squeezed by competition and insurers, they can’t afford patient lifts and safety consultants. Prediction Grade: F

PREDICTION: My fictional safety and health pro of the future would be traveling to Rome for an international harmonization meeting on uniform reporting of chemical spills.
Before we get to reporting chemical spills, we need globally harmonized chemical safety data sheets. OSHA’s working on it, but with the average OSHA standard taking about 16 years to be finalized, I think I got a little ahead of myself on this one. Prediction Grade: D

PREDICTION: There will not be sufficient local EHS talent to handle the hazards of the booming manufacturing industry in Malaysia.
EORM’s Fishler in his PCIH presentation said many multinationals are using consultants to supplement the lack of qualified local EHS staff. I’m looking pretty good on this one, though progress is slowly being made developing EHS curriculum at some local universities in the Asia-Pacific region. Prediction Grade: B

PREDICTION: Employees will have “smart cards” with each individual’s complete medical and occupational exposure history to be downloaded into computers.
Instead we have “smart passes” that commuters use to save some bucks and time. Prediction Grade: F

PREDICTION: Mental stress claims will cost companies a ton of money.
Maybe in Sweden, but in the U.S. we don’t file a claim, we ask our doc for Xanax, Paxil, Zoloft, etc. I got it wrong: mental stress will make pharmaceutical companies tons of money. Prediction Grade: F

PREDICTION: Safety and health pros, working from home offices without the traditional boundaries of 9 to 5 hours and commutes to HQ, will pretty much be available to work seven days a week, any time day or night.
Of all the predictions that I could’ve gotten right, it had to be this one, eh? Sorry. Prediction Grade: A

Looking back over these mostly misbegotten educated guesses, I glean three lessons: 1) The problem with predicting the future is it doesn’t come fast enough; 2) Money, or more specifically the lack thereof, drags down many a prediction; and 3) Dr. James E. Leemann has it right: “Crystal balling the future, at best, is a dubious endeavor.”

— Dave Johnson, Editor, djsafe@bellatlantic.net

Subscribe to ISHN Magazine

Related Articles

EDITORIAL COMMENTS: It hits you "like a ton of bricks"

EDITORIAL COMMENTS: A house divided...

Subscribe For Free!
  • Digital Edition Subscriptions
  • ISHN eNewsletter & Other eNews Alerts
  • Online Registration
  • Subscription Customer Service

More Videos

Popular Stories

Today's News

2 young part-time UPS workers killed in California

incident investigation

How to investigate a worksite incident

ambulance

Buffalo Wild Wings manager dies after exposure to toxic cleaning product fumes

house

Potted plants are irrelevant to indoor air quality

Tesla

Report finds worker injuries are “routine” at Tesla’s Nevada plant

ISHN Readers' Choice Awards 2020 product submissions


Events

March 7, 2019

Safety and Wellness: The Combination that Drives Engagement and Profitability

On Demand Attend this webinar for the keys to success, as well as mistakes to avoid, when targeting safety and wellness with a Recognition & Reward Program.

View All Submit An Event

ISHN Podcasts


ISHN Podcasts

ISHN Magazine

ISHN1219_cover.jpg

2019 December

Among the articles in the December 2019 issue of ISHN Magazine, we have expert insight on selecting the right respirator, a link to the 2020 Buyers’ & Resource Guide, 10 safety mistakes that can land you in a courtroom, and much more.
View More Create Account
  • Resources
    • List Rental
    • Safety A-Z
    • Custom Content & Marketing Services
    • Market Research
    • Web Exclusives
    • Privacy Policy
  • Want More
    • Connect
    • Subscribe
    • Survey And Sample

Copyright ©2019. All Rights Reserved BNP Media.

Design, CMS, Hosting & Web Development :: ePublishing