Updated 10/1/2024 with new figures and the status of the strike

Dockworkers at major East and Gulf Coast ports could strike starting as soon as Oct. 1, resulting in supply chain disruptions that could severely disrupt the economy and have lasting effects on the roofing industry.

Negotiations between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoreman’s Association have stalled for a master contract that expires Sept. 30. According to the USMX, a walkout could affect 14 to 36 ports and roughly 45,000 workers, ranging from Boston to Houston.

It's estimated that roughly half of all containerized goods come into East and Gulf Coast ports. If the ILA, which represents 85,000 workers, does strike, it would be the first time since 1977. As of Oct. 1, dockworkers in ports from Maine to Texas began marching in picket lines, starting in ports in Philadelphia just after midnight, according to reporting from the Associated Press.

The USMX filed an unfair labor practice with the National Labor Relations Board, requesting “immediate injunctive relief – requiring the Union to resume bargaining – so that we can negotiate a deal."

The ILA, in turn, has rebuked the complaint, calling it a “publicity stunt” and “weak publicity campaign” in a statement published Sept. 26 on its website.

“USMX filing these charges four days before the expiration of the current Master Contract clearly illustrates what poor negotiating partners they have been,” the ILA said. “If it wasn’t for the ILA engaging in serious and productive negotiations, most of the local agreements would not have been settled over the past year.”

The Impact on Roofing

Craig Brightup, CEO of The Brightup Group, a government relations consulting firm in Washington, D.C., said in terms of the roofing industry, companies installing roofing systems that rely on critical components coming over in these ports will feel the effects first.

“In the event that there are certain items imported in terms of the commercial roof assembly where, if they don’t come over, you can never quite complete the job, that’s the scenario that I can see,” he said.

Brightup believes roofing could withstand the strike's impact better than other industries, but the ripple effect caused by the overall economic slowdown will hurt roofing companies.

“Different commercial entities that may want to do a new roof system and have that in their plans in the not-too-distant future … if retailers and big-box people and shopping malls are suddenly impacted, they may have to recalibrate their plans to do roof maintenance, repair or have a new roof put on their facility,” he said.

However, the industry as a whole, especially companies that import materials and goods from Europe, could be affected.

“Any kind of stoppage on this is going to cause problems. If it’s a day or two, even that will cause some, but ultimately they may be able to get that unwound,” said Brightup. “If it’s longer than that, it really, really could have a big impact.”

Combined with Hurricane Helene making landfall in Florida as a Category 4 storm and disruptions in the Red Sea from ongoing Houthi attacks on vessels, this could all create a perfect storm that could wreak havoc on the economy.

"This is something that every major industry, and roofing is a major roofing industry group, needs to be watching," Brightup said. "This could be big."

A coalition letter headed by the National Retail Federation and signed by 177 trade associations, including the National Roofing Contractors Association, urged President Biden to work with the ILA and USMX to resume negotiations.

“At this critical juncture, it is imperative that the parties return to the table without engaging in disruptive activities that could harm the economy and the millions of businesses, workers and consumers who rely on the seamless flow of goods, both imports and exports, through our East Coast and Gulf Coast ports,” the letter states.

Political Solutions

Less than 40 days before the presidential election, the potential strike is causing the White House to approach the situation cautiously.

Reports earlier today said the head of the USMX has been invited to D.C. to discuss the negotiations with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, and White House economic adviser Lael Brainard.

“My guess is the White House is going to probably implore the ILA ‘please don’t go on strike,’ because in the end, it will be to the detriment … of the White House and by implication to Vice President Harris’ campaign,” Brightup said.

It’s unclear whether the White House will enact the Taft-Hartley Act to assist with the negotiations. The law allows the president to ask a court to order an 80-day cool-off period when the public health or safety of the nation is at risk.

In 2022, Biden and Congress intervened to prevent a railroad strike. In 2023, Su helped broker a deal to avoid a strike with West Coast dockworkers.

Stalemate Conditions

The disagreement between the ILA and USMX boils down to two issues: wages and automation. USMX has said that its offer includes “industry-leading wage increases,” while ILA has previously stated that USMX offers “an unacceptable wage increase package," suggesting that a $5 an hour increase for each year of a six-year agreement only amounts to a 10% annual increase.

"Mark my words, we'll shut them down October 1 if we don't get the kind of wages we deserve," Harold Daggett, president of the ILA, said earlier this month.

In terms of automation, Daggett has said the union will fight to protect its workers from being replaced with automated operations. The technology is currently in use in ports on the West Coast, and the ILA calls for a ban on the automation of cranes, gates and container movers. USMX has said it will retain “the existing technology language that created a framework for modernizing and improving efficiency while protecting jobs and hours.”

Brightup believes this is likely the main sticking point, noting that many U.S. ports are antiquated compared to those around the world.

“The union is adamant that they do not want automation to suddenly be used at the other ports,” he said.

According to the USMX, substantive contract discussions first began in 2022. The entities released a joint statement on May 12, saying they expected to complete local negotiations that week and resume contract negotiations. However, it’s been reported the groups haven’t met since June.