OK, OSHA isn’t exactly rolling.

Eighteen field offices are slated for closure after DOGE downsizing.

On May 15 a House subcommittee warned the agency not to “overreach” with new regulations. No worries. It’s highly doubtful more than a dozen proposals or pre-rule initiatives on the reg agenda will see the light of day in the next four years.

The National Association of Manufacturers wants OSHA’s rule on worker walkaround representation to be rescinded, and to take a step back on the proposed heat rule to “allow for further input from affected industry stakeholders.”

Upwards of 300 agency staffers, mostly senior officials in Washington, have taken early retirement or have been laid off — a blow to the agency’s institutional memory.

The new OSHA boss — respected EHS professional David Keeling — probably won’t be confirmed and running operations until the fall due to the lengthy bureaucratic process of Congress approving hundreds of nominees. OSHA’s last chief, Doug Parker, wasn’t confirmed until October 25, 2012. David Michaels, the longest-serving OSHA administrator, had to wait until December 8, 2009, more than a year after Barack Obama was elected president.

No target on OSHA’s back

But OSHA is currently faring surprisingly well in a GOP-led anti-regulatory environment. Especially considering the virtual decimation of its sister agency, NIOSH — until intense pressure brought back on May 13 director Dr. John Howard, who had been dismissed after a 22-year tenure, revived the respirator approval program and restored health hazard alerts. More than a half-dozen rescue attempts — lawsuits and intense lobbying — to save at least portions of NIOSH have succeed. The outrage has been unprecedented.

But why has OSHA been left relatively unscathed while NIOSH has fought for its survival?

After all, OSHA’s org chart has almost no vacancies, with almost all senior leaders, including political appointees, having at least some safety and health background. Enforcement actions are regularly publicized. The heat stress standard will have a virtual hearing in June. The heat stress national emphasis program has been extended until April, 2025.

Factors protecting OSHA

Two important points jump out:

1. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer is a Trump loyalist no doubt, but a moderate compared to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a MAGA/DOGE department downsizing zealot. Kennedy owes his job to President Trump. Kennedy originally ran in the Democratic primary against President Joe Biden before deciding to launch an independent bid. He then suspended that campaign and endorsed Trump, who repeatedly praised Kennedy and promised him influence in his administration.

Chavez-DeRemer owes her job most likely to Teamsters President Sean O’Brien, who sources say recommended her to the White House. O’Brien has had an unusually positive relationship with Trump for a union leader. He spoke at the Republican National Convention and has met with the president at Mar-a-Lago. Chavez-DeRemer, meanwhile, has a father who was a 30-year Teamsters veteran. She has promised Congress at her confirmation hearing to aggressively pursue enforcement against employers who fail to provide safe working conditions. She further testified: “The remits for the Department of Labor is to protect the workplace. Make sure that they're free of hazard, make sure that we're protecting the American worker. Nobody expects to go to work in the morning and be unsafe or be hurt…”

2. OSHA has a natural built-in constituency — millions of workers across all US industries. That constituency also happens to be a critical part of President Trump’s base of support. The President can’t ignore the broad trend that sees the Republican Party gaining ground with blue-collar voters, while the Democratic Party's traditional base in this group has been eroding. Election results revealed Trump enjoyed significant support from the white working class and voters without a college degree; and he made a strong showing among the blue-collar components of the labor movement. Politically it would be a mistake to alienate or antagonize this support by seriously attacking OSHA, a symbolic shield of working-class America.

NIOSH, which one source said “has always been the red-headed stepchild at CDC,” historically has no natural constituency, save for a small dedicated group of scientists, researchers and recipients of NIOSH grants. “It’s easy to pick on NIOSH’s small budget, small staff, and underling status,” said the source, speaking anonymously to talk plainly.

Future perils lurk

To be sure, the current political playing field tilted in OSHA’s favor is subject to change.

The White House’s budget document proposes shrinking the DOL’s budget by one-third, from its current $13.3 billion to $8.6 billion in FY 2026. It’s almost a certainty Congress will not go along with a cut that deep, but the DOL’s budget will be less and that reality will trickle down to all departments, including OSHA.

Then there is the specter of a possible significant re-organization of DOL that will again affect all sub-departments. A DOL reorganization plan was ordered by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the first draft has been submitted. Washington politicos expect to see DOL shrink its footprint along with all cabinet departments.

OSHA’s footprint could be reduced by consolidating regional offices from 10 to maybe 7, according to one source. An agency directorate such as the construction office could be disbanded, with functions such as enforcement and outreach going to the larger national enforcement directorate and national cooperative programs. The Directorate of Whistleblower Protection Programs (whistleblowers being no favorite of business) could be absorbed into the enforcement directorate.  And there could be more reductions in force both in the field and at Washington headquarters.

Meanwhile, it seems likely that court judges, lobbyists and Congress will continue to restore NIOSH funding, staffing and operations. It’s now clear NIOSH is not going away. Its partial restoration this week reinforces the fact that actually killing off a federal entity is almost impossible. In Washington, talking the talk is easy, walking the walking is like navigating a minefield. Just ask RFK, Jr.

Stay tuned…