Some predictions are formed using sophisticated methods, others are simply someone's best guess. In this article, I want to show you just a few ways that predictions are used, and maybe misused, in the EHS field. Hopefully, you'll also come away thinking more openly about how you make predictions.
Methods for looking ahead
Numerous methodologies can be used to develop predictions. Some are technical ³ fault tree analysis or computer modeling, for example. Others are very creative. I'm aware of a certified safety professional who used his biorhythm calendar to predict his company's future injury incidence rates. Biorhythm theory states that our lives are influenced by a physical, emotional, and intellectual cycle that begins at birth. This CSP believed that during periods when his biorhythms were low, injury incidence rates in his company would climb. I was amazed to find that he had historical charts that appeared to support his beliefs.Here's another creative method, courtesy of Pulse of the WorldÙ, an organization that researches dreams and hunches to determine if they are related to actual events. You can report your dreams and hunches to the Internet site www.pulseoftheworld.com. The organization surveys and measures your dream or hunch along with those from lots of other people. Using data that is accumulated, predictions about the future are made. For example, POW predicts an "incredible upsurge in the stock market will begin in late October or early November 1998." By the time you read this article you'll know if this prediction came true.
Of interest to us safety-minded folks, POW predicts that there will be a "disaster at sea, Norway, 1:00 p.m., October 1999. Between 20 and 50 fatalities." Also, there will be a "nuclear incident in Rome, Italy, June 2000."
Many people believe that with advances in science, mathematics, and computer technology, the future can be predicted more reliably today than anytime in the past. This seems logical, but success at predicting the future using sophisticated methodologies is still elusive.
For example, a couple of Nobel Prize-winning economists developed a theory employing the use of advanced calculations and computers to predict the direction of stocks and other investments. Money was made on their predictions in 1996 and 1997. Their predictions didn't hold true in 1998 and billions of dollars were lost on investments in hedge funds.
Where to spot trends
Most predictions rely on an analysis of trends. Trend analysis and review is where most EHS pros should obtain ideas about the future. EHS trend data is all around us and can be found in many forms. Here are a few trend reports and trend data that you should review:
- Industrial Safety and Hygiene News' Annual White Paper Survey (www.ishn.com)
- Fifty facts from The World Health Report 1998: Global health situation and trends 1955-2025 (www.who.int/whr/1998/facts.htm)
- Trends 2000 (order book at www.trendsresearch.com/book1.html)
- Chapter 50, Anticipating and Evaluating Trends Influencing Occupational Hygiene, "The Occupational Environment - Its Evaluation and Control" (order book at www.aiha.org)
You'll have to read the entire article to appreciate what Drucker means by this statement. I don't think you'll be disappointed if you track down this issue of Fortune and read Drucker's article. Most predictions rely on an analysis of trends. Trend analysis and review is where most EHS pros should obtain ideas about the future. EHS trend data is all around us and can be found in many forms. Here are a few trend reports and trend data that you should review:
- Industrial Safety and Hygiene News' Annual White Paper Survey (www.ishn.com)
- Fifty facts from The World Health Report 1998: Global health situation and trends 1955-2025 (www.who.int/whr/1998/facts.htm)
- Trends 2000 (order book at www.trendsresearch.com/book1.html)
- Chapter 50, Anticipating and Evaluating Trends Influencing Occupational Hygiene, "The Occupational Environment - Its Evaluation and Control" (order book at www.aiha.org)
You'll have to read the entire article to appreciate what Drucker means by this statement. I don't think you'll be disappointed if you track down this issue of Fortune and read Drucker's article.
Positioning yourself for the future
Actually, I think trying to predict the future is fun. It's kind of a hobby of mine now. In 1989, I completed, for myself, a 'trends report' that addressed the major EHS issues of the time. I then predicted what would happen with each trend five years later, in 1994. I was fortunate enough to have many of my peers review and comment back then on my predictions. So how did I do?Out of 60 predictions, about half are generally true now. I failed miserably in predicting the direction of regulations. I was pretty much right on target, though, on predicting the direction of issues such as AIDS and smoking in the workplace. Besides having fun, this work put me in a better position, knowledge-wise, when some of the key predictions came true. I think many people would benefit by acting upon those predications that they feel most comfortable with.
Just don't place too much faith in predictions. Even some of the best-developed ones just don't come true. Perhaps the reason for this is summed up by the baseball sage, Yogi Berra, when he said, "The problem with predicting is that it is tough to tell the future."
